Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
