A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
